Seasonality or Vaccinality
Seasonality or Vaccinality
Are recent and current Covid-19 waves seasonal phenomena or a consequence of mass "vaccination" campaigns?
There has been a question raised by the reader Jim as to whether the recent and current Covid-19 waves are a caused by mass “vaccination” campaigns or mainly by seasonality of coronaviruses in general. Both arguments have their merits, and it would be futile to fight over the definite attribution one way or the other. Likely, both factors are in play.
But! Here are three visual morsels to behold - confirmed cases, “vaccinations” and booster shots in few Northern Hemisphere countries (alas, no combined booster or primary jab stat is available at ourworldindata.org):
Compare the Covid-19 case waves in the summer of 2020 and 2021. See the pattern? June-September became a brand new active season for Covid-19 in 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere, just as mass “vaccinations” were rolled out in the represented countries. Look how much busier, visually, the warm season became in 2021, despite the “95% protection”™ conferred by the magic jabs!
Now, with the booster campaigns coinciding with or leading the seasonal coronavirus trends, aren’t we in for a fun winter?
So, seasonality or “vaccinality”? Drop your comment in the comments section below!
The season for coronaviruses in the northern hemisphere is approximately mid January to mid April peaking in February and March.
Global Seasonality of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses: A Clue for Postpandemic Circulating Season of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2?
You Li,1 Xin Wang,1 and Harish Nair1,2
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454715/
‘For human coronaviruses, 4 known seasonal coronaviruses (sCoVs) have long been circulating in human populations, including 2 alphacoronaviruses (NL63 and 229E) and 2 betacoronaviruses (OC43 and HKU1). Therefore, it is possible that once endemic, SARS-CoV-2, a betacoronavirus, will follow the same seasonal patterns as the sCoVs.’
‘In the temperate sites excluding China, 53.1% of the sCoV cases (interquartile range [IQR], 34.6%–61.9%) occurred during influenza season (defined by the top 3 months with highest AAP), and 49.6% of the sCoV cases (IQR, 30.2%–60.2%) occurred during RSV season. Less overlap was observed in the tropical sites as well as temperate sites in China between sCoV activity and influenza/RSV activity (20% during influenza season and 29% during RSV season; Supplementary Figure 3).
Meteorological Factors and Seasonality of sCoVs
A total of 17 studies with >100 positive sCoV cases were included in our model (including 2 sites from temperate China). Low temperature with higher relative humidity was found to be associated with higher proportion of sCoV cases; dew point was observed to have similar relationship with sCoV activity as temperature (Figure 6). Similar results were found from the model excluding 2 temperate sites from China (Supplementary Figure 4).’
‘In the present study, we described the month-by-month activity of sCoVs in 40 sites from 21 countries. We found that sCoVs occurred mainly in winter months in temperate sites except for China and was less seasonal in China and tropical sites. We highlighted a high proportion of co-circulating sCoV cases during influenza virus and RSV seasons, implicating the possibility of a substantial increase in the demand to healthcare system resources during wintertime.’
‘....the seasonality of different species of sCoVs in our study provides important baseline data for epidemiology and modeling studies in understanding the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and sCoVs; a recent study supported the cross-reactive T-cell recognition between sCoVs and SARS-CoV-2 [14].’
‘One of the lessons learned from the history of influenza pandemics is its transition from pandemic to seasonal circulation and the replacement of existing strain(s) with the pandemic strain. Although it is not clear how the existing sCoVs initially emerged or whether they had previously replaced any viruses, understanding the global seasonality of sCoVs would undoubtedly offer some clues on the possible postpandemic circulating season of SARS-CoV-2 and contribute to the knowledge pool for the postpandemic preparedness for SARS-CoV-2.’
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454715/
See figures.....
In Temperate climates the Alpha and Beta Seasonal Corona Viruses (sCoV’s) from various studies analyses within this study show that the sCoV’s generally appear December to end April peaking in February and March.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454715/
Seasonality AND regionality.
Seasons mean nothing if they are located near the equator or the poles.
Take Queensland, NSW, Victoria. Qld has had hardly any cases; it had days of zip cases; whereas NSW has had more; and Victoria the most! NSW and Victoria vax rates are similar; Qld's are a bit lower.
Qld climate is "beautiful one day, perfect the next".
Now compare the "seasons" of Chanada and areas around there.